Burdekin, Richard C. K., Eric Hughson, and Will Zhang. “Brexit Overreaction and the Greek Stock Market Revival.” Empirical Economics Letters, vol. 24, number 9, September 2025, pp. 49-55.
Abstract: We compare the performance of the Greek stock market against other European markets both before and after the 2016 Brexit referendum. Despite being the hardest hit of all on June 24, 2016, Greece went on to outperform every other major European stock market post-Brexit. Structural break testing confirms a statistically significant post-Brexit step up in Greek stock market performance of over 3% per month. This stock market revival occurred amidst an improving fiscal and economic situation that was already evident by 2016 but was seemingly ignored by investors in the immediate aftermath of the referendum.
Burdekin, Richard C. K., and Ran Tao. “Chinese vs. US Stock Market Transmission to Australasia, Hong Kong, and the ASEAN Group.” Journal Of Risk and Financial Management, vol. 18, number 3, March 2025, p. 162.
Abstract: This study seeks to quantify the rising financial linkages between mainland China, Australia, Hong Kong, New Zealand, and the six largest Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN group). Stock market co-movements would be consistent with growing trade ties. Our sample runs from 2010 through 2022, including the coronavirus pandemic. Markov switching analysis allows for changing effects as we move from periods of low market volatility to periods of high volatility. The results offer support for the premise that growing trade and investment ties between China, Australasia, Hong Kong and the ASEAN region have been accompanied by significant financial market integration as reflected in stock market co-movement. US effects are also significant and tend to be stronger during high-volatility episodes. Under low-volatility conditions, Shanghai effects become more important and are significant for all six ASEAN group countries.
Filson, Darren, Karen Van Nuys, Darius Lakdawalla, and Dana Goldman. “The Elasticity of Pharmaceutical Innovation: How Much Does Revenue Drive New Drug Development?” USC Schaeffer Center White Paper Series, February 18, 2025.
Abstract: Pharmaceutical policy often affects the revenues of innovation-oriented firms. The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is the most prominent recent example: It allows Medicare to negotiate price discounts on selected prescription drugs using the overwhelming bargaining leverage of the federal government. These prices will go into effect in 2026. Economic theory suggests that reductions in revenue eventually translate into reduced rates of innovative effort—generally measured using some proxy for research and development (R&D). The question then becomes: How large is the impact? Researchers often measure this effect using the “elasticity” of innovation, which measures the percentage change in a measure of innovation—like Phase 1 trial starts or new drug approvals—that results from a percentage change in expected or actual revenues. We critically review the literature estimating this elasticity, along with alternative estimation strategies (including a study by the Congressional Budget Office). All the studies conclude that the elasticity is positive—i.e., lower revenues lead to less R&D—but estimates vary widely. However, we argue that a typical long-run elasticity associated with U.S. revenues lies within the range of 0.25 to 1.5, implying that for every 10% reduction in expected revenues, we can expect 2.5% to 15% less pharmaceutical innovation. Some caution is warranted, however, as a single elasticity does not apply to all contexts. The magnitude of the elasticity likely varies with time horizon, the magnitude of the price change, the size of the patient population and other marketplace factors.
Masia, Neal, Darren Filson, Silas Martin, and Ulrich Neumann. “Income, Health and Racial Gaps Between 340B Hospitals, Child Sites, and Nearby Neighborhoods” Health Affairs Scholar, vol. 3, issue 7, July 2025, qxaf121.
Abstract: Objectives: To estimate neighborhood differences between 340B child sites, parent hospital covered entities (CEs), and other neighborhoods near CEs.
Methods: We created a unique dataset that contains CE and child site characteristics, and Zip Code Tabulation Area (ZCTA) socioeconomic and health data in 2022 for over 12 000 out-of-ZCTA code 340B hospital child sites. We computed differences across key measures, including median income, uninsured and unemployment rates, age, and health metrics between each pair and between the child site’s ZCTA and all other ZCTAs within a 10-mile radius of the CE.
Results: The median child-site ZCTA income is 28% higher than CE ZCTA income and approximately 11% higher than CE neighborhood ZCTA income. Uninsured rates (11% lower than CE ZCTA and 10% lower than CE neighborhood ZCTA) and unemployment rates (17% and 15% for CE ZCTA and CE neighborhood ZCTA, respectively) are lower in child-site areas and where the share of White residents is higher (11% and 9%, respectively). Average health status is better in child-site ZCTAs despite a higher median age.
Conclusion: Our analysis suggests that 340B entities place child sites in neighborhoods that are wealthier, healthier, better insured, and less diverse than the neighborhoods of both the CE and other neighborhoods within a 10-mile radius of the CE.
Robinson, David, Manfred Keil, and Darren Filson. “The Regional Economic Impacts of DHCD’s Community and Clinical Social Needs Goals and Recommendations Implementation.” Coachella Valley Economic Partnership (CVEP) Desert Healthcare District (DHCD) Study, April 2025.
Abstract: The report analyzes the potential economic impact of bringing more healthcare professionals to the Coachella Valley and summarizes findings from the literature on how to attract and retain such professionals.
Firoozi, Daniel, and Igor Geyn. “Do Tuition Subsidies Raise Political Participation?” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, vol. 17, number 4, November 2025, pp. 354-378.
Abstract: Civic externalities motivate education expenditures, but estimates of the civic returns to large-scale education subsidies are scarce. We use 16 million financial aid applications and a regression discontinuity (RD) design to estimate how a tuition-free college program impacts political participation. We find that each of the 2.6 million awards increased a student's voter turnout rate by 4-12 percentage points in 2020, raising total turnout and Biden's margin of victory in the awarding state. We find evidence consistent with peer socialization, among other mechanisms, and show that the civic externalities of education spending can be large enough to sway elections.
Gelman, Michael, Zachary Orlando, and Dhiren Patki. “The Impact of Unexpected Delays in Periodic Payments on Consumption.” Journal of Public Economics, vol. 252, December 2025, 105523.
Abstract: We study how unexpected delays in periodic payments affect spending behavior. Our empirical approach uses transaction-level data on income and spending and exploits quasi-random delays in the receipt of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. Spending drops by about half of the loss in income that occurs while individuals wait for UI benefits, revealing the value of periodic payments for liquidity-constrained individuals. Once delayed payments are received as lump sums, individuals reallocate spending toward less commonly purchased big-ticket categories that are dominated by durables.
Gillen, Ben. “A Moment-Based Representation for Heteroskedasticity Robust Standard Errors.” Journal of Econometric Methods, vol. 14, number 2, 2025, pp. 49-57.
Abstract: Heteroskedasticity robust standard errors are often presented as a formula that is not directly related to classical standard errors derived under homoskedasticity. This short paper introduces a moment-based result relating these two estimators through the correlation between squared residuals and squared regressors. Though the result does not rely on normality, it admits a simple approximation when all variables are normally distributed. This representation can be useful both for pedagogical purposes in undergraduate courses that do not use matrix algebra and in highlighting the relative magnitude of robust to non-robust standard errors.
Chen, Joseph, Eric Hughson, and Neal Stoughton. “Strategic Mutual Fund Tournaments.” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, vol. 60, issue 7, November 2025, pp. 3344-3379.
Abstract: This paper characterizes the optimal risk-taking strategies of mutual fund managers competing in multi-period winner-take-all tournaments. With competition among mutual funds, every fund begins by taking maximum risk. In the final period, all funds continue to take maximum risk except possibly the leading fund, which plays a “lock-in” strategy but only when the magnitude of the lead is great enough. Contrary to the standard result, our prediction implies that we should observe a reduction in risk-taking by the leader to strategically lock in the advantage, rather than an increase in risk-taking by the trailers to try to catch up. We provide supportive empirical evidence, which is robust to alternate specifications.
Burdekin, Richard C. K., Eric Hughson, and Will Zhang. “Brexit Overreaction and the Greek Stock Market Revival.” Empirical Economics Letters, vol. 24, number 9, September 2025, pp. 49-55.
Abstract: We compare the performance of the Greek stock market against other European markets both before and after the 2016 Brexit referendum. Despite being the hardest hit of all on June 24, 2016, Greece went on to outperform every other major European stock market post-Brexit. Structural break testing confirms a statistically significant post-Brexit step up in Greek stock market performance of over 3% per month. This stock market revival occurred amidst an improving fiscal and economic situation that was already evident by 2016 but was seemingly ignored by investors in the immediate aftermath of the referendum.
Keil, Manfred, Robert Kleinhenz, and Kenneth P. Miller. "The State of the Region 2025: Economic and Election Report.” Inland Empire Economic Partnership, February 19, 2025.
Abstract: State of the Region, Inland Empire, Annual Report, presented at annual meeting of Inland Empire Economic Partnership at Ontario Convention Center, February 2025 (jointly with Robert Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz Economics, and Kenneth Miller, Director, Rose Institute, CMC).
Keil, Manfred. “Monthly Employment Reports” Inland Empire Economic Partnership, January 2025 - December 2025.
Abstract: The California Economic Development Department (EDD) releases monthly information both from the CPS and the CES surveys, typically in the middle of the month. RAs from the forecast group at the Lowe Institute and I produce a summary of economic developments from the EDD report and it is posted at the Lowe Institute website and the Inland Empire Economic Partnership (IEEP) website.
Schniepp, Mark, and Manfred Keil. “Riverside County Economic and Revenue Forecast.” County of Riverside Executive Office, May 2025 and October 2025.
Keil, Manfred, and Robert Kleinhenz. “Economic Brief: Riverside and San Bernardino Counties.” 2025 Southern California Economic Update, Southern California Association of Governments, December 2025, pp. 44-47.
Keil, Manfred, and Charles Bollwerk. “How good a year was 2024 for the Inland Empire?https://www.sbsun.com/2025/07/25/what-the-inland-empire-economy-is-telling-us-about-whats-to-come/” The San Bernardino Sun, January 31, 2025.
Keil, Manfred. “Warning lights are flashing for the Inland Empire economy.https://www.sbsun.com/2025/07/25/what-the-inland-empire-economy-is-telling-us-about-whats-to-come/” The San Bernardino Sun, March 21, 2025.
Keil, Manfred, and Mark Schniepp. “Is a 2025 recession a myth or reality in this age of uncertainty?https://www.sbsun.com/2025/07/25/what-the-inland-empire-economy-is-telling-us-about-whats-to-come/” The San Bernardino Sun, May 14, 2025.
Keil, Manfred, and Mark Schniepp. “The 2025 economic picture is uncertain for the Inland Empirehttps://www.sbsun.com/2025/07/25/what-the-inland-empire-economy-is-telling-us-about-whats-to-come/.” The San Bernardino Sun, June 5, 2025.
Keil, Manfred. “What the national economy could have in store in the second half of 2025https://www.sbsun.com/2025/07/25/what-the-inland-empire-economy-is-telling-us-about-whats-to-come/.” The San Bernardino Sun, July 11, 2025.
Keil, Manfred. “What the Inland Empire economy is telling us about what’s to come.” The San Bernardino Sun, July 25, 2025.
Keil, Manfred, and Mark Schniepp. “What’s in store for the Inland Empire’s future workforce?” The San Bernardino Sun, August 15, 2025.
Keil, Manfred, and Mark Schniepp. “Why diversification is needed in San Bernardino County.” The San Bernardino Sun, August 30, 2025.
Keil, Manfred. “What does the most recent labor market data tell us?” The San Bernardino Sun, December 5, 2025.
Chen, J., and Manfred Keil. “25 good things that happened in Southern California in 2025.” The San Bernardino Sun, December 6, 2025.
Golez, Benjamin, Peter Kelly, and Ben Matthies. “FOMC news and segmented markets.” Journal of Accounting and Economics, vol. 79, issues 2-3, April-May 2025, 101767.
Abstract: A growing body of evidence suggests that Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements can affect private sector beliefs about near-term macroeconomic conditions. We measure the impact of central bank policy on index option trader beliefs about near-term economic conditions using the return of short-term dividend strips around each FOMC announcement (we term this short-term dividend strip return, “SDR”). Consistent with the idea that these announcements contain valuable information about macroeconomic conditions, we find that SDR predicts both future firm-level earnings and firm-level earnings announcement returns. Furthermore, using analyst earnings forecasts, we provide evidence of belief underreaction to FOMC announcements. We discuss how investor specialization and segmented markets can generate our empirical results.
Golez, Benjamin, Peter Kelly, and Ben Matthies. “What does the equity term structure tell us about Trump 2.0’s first 100 days in office?” Economics Letters, vol. 254, August 2025, 112460.
Abstract: We analyze the equity term structure during Trump 2.0′s first 100 days to examine the narrative from the Trump administration that his policies will bring short-term pain in exchange for long-term gain. We find that the price of short-term assets (assets that entitle the owner to the dividends of the aggregate market over the near term) increased in value, whereas the aggregate market itself decreased in value. This differs from the president’s narrative. The evidence from the pre-election period suggests that investors might have initially overestimated the short- and long-term impacts of Trump’s policies.
Robinson, Sarah and Alisa Tazhitdinova. “One Hundred Years of U.S. State Taxation.” Journal of Public Economics, January 2025, vol. 241, 105273.
Abstract: We analyze the evolution of U.S. state tax rates since 1910 and state tax revenues from 1942 until 2022. Tax policy shifted rapidly at the beginning of the 20th century, but in many ways has remained remarkably stable over the past fifty years. Even as tax rates change frequently and vary widely across states, the degree of heterogeneity across states in rates and revenues is very similar over time. We document two key insights for empirical researchers using variation in tax policy for identification. First, tax changes do not appear to be driven by economic conditions, as neither the timing of tax changes nor tax rates themselves exhibit a predictable pattern around state recessions. Second, throughout the time period we study, many tax changes occur simultaneously, particularly for personal, corporate, and sales taxes. Because the coinciding changes are typically moving in the same direction, researchers should use caution when attributing effects to a specific type of tax, and we show that estimates can be sensitive to controlling for additional tax rates.
Schaller, Jessamyn, and Chase Eck. “Family Support During Hard Times: Dynamics of Intergenerational Exchange after Adverse Events.” The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 107, issue 4, 2025, pp. 1010-1026.
Abstract: We use event studies to examine changes in intergenerational financial transfers and informal care within families following wealth loss, job exit, widowhood, and health shocks. We find sharp reductions in giving to adult children following negative shocks to parents’ wealth and earned income, particularly in low-wealth households. Giving also decreases with some health shocks and increases following spousal death. Meanwhile, children of low-wealth households increase financial transfers to parents following adverse shocks in parental households and children of both high- and low-wealth households sharply increase their provision of informal care to parents following a wide range of adverse shocks.
Shelton, Cameron, and Adhitya Venkatraman*. “Dead Money: Measuring the Influence of Representatives on Government Spending.” Public Choice, 2025.
Abstract: Using deaths and resignations to identify spells where congressional districts were unrepresented in the House of Representatives, we investigate the effect of these vacancies on the post-passage appropriations process. We find that lack of representation leads to a substantial 4.5% decline in the intensive margin of appropriations (new contract funding) but no effect on the extensive margin (number of granting agencies). However, this effect is concentrated among those districts receiving money from more agencies. For this half of the distribution, the decline is a more substantial 12.4%. This holds for both initial awards and renegotiations to existing contracts. The effect does not seem to be driven by a higher elasticity of particular funding agencies. It would seem that districts with more relationships to handle suffer a greater decline in appropriations when they are without a representative simply because there are more opportunities to be missed.
Jaremski, Matthew, Gary Richardson, and Angela Vossmeyer. “Signals and Stigmas from Banking Interventions: Lessons from the Bank Holiday of 1933.” Journal of Financial Economics, vol. 163, January 2025, 103968.
Abstract: A nationwide panic forced President Roosevelt to declare a banking holiday in March 1933. The government reopened banks sequentially using a process that sent noisy signals about banks’ health. New microdata reveals that the public responded to these signals. Deposits at rapidly reopened banks rebounded quicker than at comparable or stronger banks that reopened even a few days later. The stigma of late reopening shifted funds from stigmatized to lauded banks and among communities that they served. Despite persisting over a decade, the shift had no measurable impact on the rate at which localities recovered from the Great Depression.
Weidenmier, Marc, Angela Vossmeyer, Nathan Stella, and Oncel Aldanmaz*. “Bank Stocks and Roosevelt’s Bank Holiday.” Economics Letters, vol. 255, September 2025, 112539.
Abstract: Roosevelt’s Bank Holiday in March 1933 aimed to halt bank runs and implement licensing for banks. Using a new hand-collected daily database, we examine how bank stocks and bond markets responded to this sweeping regulation. We find that New York City banks saw significant negative abnormal returns, while Chicago banks experienced positive returns, highlighting regional differences in perceptions of the policy. Corporate bond yields fell by 1.4 percentage points, lowering interest rates. Our findings show how markets reacted differently across regions and asset classes to this critical intervention.
Jaremski, Matthew, Gary Richardson, and Angela Vossmeyer. “Fighting ‘Fear Itself’: The Bank Holiday of March 1933.” Journal of Financial Crises, vol. 7, issue 1, 2025, pp. 31-56.
Abstract: In the month preceding Franklin Roosevelt’s inauguration, a panic overwhelmed the U.S. banking system. Immediately after assuming office, Roosevelt declared a nationwide bank holiday and vowed to reopen only sound banks. Five days after the holiday ended, nearly 11,000 of the nation's more than 18,000 commercial banks had reopened. Nearly 4,000 never reopened or had to be reorganized. The holiday is often credited with helping reestablish financial stability, but little is known about the mechanisms underlying the reopening process and the way in which payment systems were restored. We detail the process of reopening the banking system using narrative records provided by contemporary policymakers. Further, with new data on the date and type of reopenings, we provide descriptive statistics showing spatial and serial relationships of bank operations. Lastly, we discuss the rehabilitation programs that followed after the Holiday.