* Indicates student co-author
Appel, Hilary. Review of Politics for Profit: Business Elections, and Policymaking in Russia, by David Szakonyl. Perspectives on Politics, vol. 19, issue 2, 2021, pp. 678-679.
Abstract: This is an invited book review published in an APSA peer reviewed journal of a recent monograph on regional politics in Russia.
Appel, Hilary and Mitchell A. Orenstein. “How East European Countries Signaled their Reforms to the World: Theorizing Post-Communist Transition.” Comparative Politics Newsletter, vol. 31, issue 1, 2021, pp. 30-36.
Abstract: Early theories of transitions from communism took a domestic political economy approach, focusing on the challenges and contradictions of simultaneous political and economic liberalization. Transition theorists widely expected that market competition would lead to the closure of unprofitable or uncompetitive enterprises, creating widespread unemployment, social dislocation, uncertainty, inequality and poverty. As a result, voters in these new democracies were expected to reject capitalist reforms after a brief honeymoon period. The so-called, “window of opportunity‚” for capitalist reform would be very brief, given the simultaneous introduction of free markets and democracy. This narrowly domestic, political-economy focus caused scholars to overlook the dynamics of the post-communist countries’ reinsertion into the global economy, overlooking their desperate need to attract foreign capital and reintegrate into the global economy. As a result, neoliberal policies continued to dominate policy making in the region, not only as a way to reform economies, but also as a way to signal to foreign investors that post-communist economies were welcoming business environments.
Appel, Hilary, and Jennifer Taw. “Has Russia’s Anti-NATO Agenda Succeeded?” Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 68, issue 6, 2021, pp. 468-476.
Abstract: Stopping NATO enlargement has become a clear foreign policy priority for Russia. Given the diminished likelihood of Ukrainian and Georgian membership, Russia’s anti-NATO agenda may appear as an unqualified success. However, the net impact of Russia’s anti-NATO foreign policy agenda is quite mixed. Ukraine’s and Georgia’s stakes for accession have increased and key European NATO members’ hesitancy to provoke Russia unnecessarily is clear, but Russia’s actions have not prevented progress toward accession in other candidate countries, while the appeal of membership actually has increased in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
Ascher, William. “Coping with Intelligence Deficits in Poverty-Alleviation Policies in Low-Income Countries.” Policy Sciences, vol. 54, 2021, pp. 345-370.
Abstract: Poverty-alleviation initiatives in lower-income countries are challenged by intelligence deficits that cause suboptimal designs that threaten their effectiveness, targeting, and sustainability. The uncertainty of theory and information, the adverse consequences of conventional family-level “means testing,” and unpredictable future events and conditions call for auto-targeting and auto-correcting policy designs with built-in adaptive capacity. Numerous categories and examples of these designs from multiple countries are presented.
Ascher, William. “Rescuing Responsible Hydropower Projects.” Energy Policy, vol. 150, 2021, 112092.
Abstract: Given the still-growing use of coal and natural gas in generating electricity in many developing countries, it is necessary to put far more effort into promoting responsible large-scale hydropower projects. In contrast to hydro, solar and wind power face physical constraints that greatly limit their potential to replace fossil-fuel sources of power generation. Because designing hydro projects to reduce their socio-economic and environmental damage typically entails greater costs and/or lower capacity, subsidies are needed to increase the number of responsible, economically viable projects. Despite the past abuses, hydro offers low-carbon energy generation, low-cost power generation, and important potential for energy storage and peaking supply to supplement intermittent low-carbon sources such as wind and solar. The promotion of responsible hydropower requires greater awareness of the possibilities for responsible projects, greater overall climate funding, better provision for local participation and compensation, changes in the doctrines of additionality, and stronger institutions to identify, design, and broker these projects.
Bessette, Joseph M., and J. Andrew Sinclair. “How Many Americans Support the Death Penalty? Results of National Surveys in 2019 and 2020.” Report of the Rose Institute of State and Local Government, Claremont McKenna College, June, 2021.
Bessette, Joseph M., and Andrew Sinclair. “New Evidence Confirms Widespread Support for the Death Penalty.” Real Clear Policy, August 16, 2021.
Blitz, Mark. “Heidegger and Democracy.” Democracy and the History of Political Thought, edited by Patrick N. Cain, Stephen Patrick Sims, and Stephen A. Block. Rowman & Littlefield, 2021, pp. 379-388.
Blitz, Mark. Reason and Politics: The Nature of Political Phenomena. University of Notre Dame Press, 2021.
Abstract: Amidst the seemingly endless books on more and more narrowly specialized topics within politics, Mark Blitz offers something very different. Reason and Politics: The Nature of Political Phenomena examines the central phenomena of political life in order to clarify their meaning, source, and range. Blitz gives particular attention to the notions of freedom, rights, justice, virtue, power, property, nationalism, and the common good. At the same time, Blitz shows how, in order to understand political matters correctly, we must also understand how they affect us directly. We do not merely theorize over political questions; we experience them. Blitz also considers matters such as the powers and motions of the soul, the nature of experience, and the varieties of pleasure and attachment. Living at a time when technological change makes it difficult even to claim convincingly that there are defining human characteristics and natural limits that we simply cannot change, Reason and Politics proposes that there are in fact basic phenomena not only in politics, but that make up human affairs as such. In examining these central phenomena in a lucid and articulate manner, this book makes a unique contribution not only to the study of politics but also to the study of philosophy more broadly. It will interest undergraduate and graduate students, political scientists and philosophers, those interested in politics, and general readers.
Blitz, Mark. “The Statesmanship of Ronald Reagan.” American Statesmanship: Principles and Practice of Leadership, edited by Joseph R. Fornieri, Kenneth L. Deutsch, and Sean D. Sutton. University of Notre Dame Press, 2021.
Bou Nassif, Hicham. Endgames: Military Response to Protest in Arab Autocracies. Cambridge University Press, 2021.
Abstract: The 2011 Arab Spring is the story of what happens when autocrats prepare their militaries to thwart coups but unexpectedly face massive popular uprisings instead. When demonstrators took to the streets in 2011, some militaries remained loyal to the autocratic regimes, some defected, whilst others splintered. The widespread consequences of this military agency ranged from facilitating transition to democracy, to reconfiguring authoritarianism, or triggering civil war. This study aims to explain the military politics of 2011. Building on interviews with Arab officers, extensive fieldwork and archival research, as well as hundreds of memoirs published by Arab officers, Hicham Bou Nassif shows how divergent combinations of coup-proofing tactics accounted for different patterns of military behaviour in 2011, both in Egypt and Syria, and across Tunisia, and Libya.
Bou Nassif, Hicham. “Genesis of Coup-Proofing in Egypt: Civil-Military Relations under King Farooq, and Beyond.” Routledge Handbook of Contemporary Egypt, edited by Robert Springborg, Amr Adly, Anthony Gorman, Tamir Moustafa, Aisha Saad, Naomi Sakr, and Sarah Smierciak. Routledge, 2021, pp. 95-106.
Abstract: Coup-proofing has long shaped civil-military relations in Egypt. In this chapter, I study the historical origins of Egyptian coup-proofing from the late 19th century until the breakdown of the monarchy in 1952.
Bou Nassif, Hicham. “Rethinking Pathways of Transnational Jihad: Evidence from Lebanese ISIS Recruits.” Security Studies, vol. 30, issue 5, 2021, pp. 797-822.
Abstract: Why do some individuals leave everything behind to join extremist organizations abroad? The literature on foreign fighters has grown impressively and yielded important insights in recent years. Three problems persist, however: (1) scholarship grounded in empirical fieldwork remains uncommon. This deficit reflects the scarcity of micro-level data based on individual profiles of jihadi recruits; (2) the studies available overwhelmingly center on Western jihadists even though the majority of foreign fighters who join groups such as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) or al Qaeda hail from Arab countries; (3) an artificial rivalry between different explanatory approaches has produced an inconclusive picture of the determinants of radicalization. In this article, I reconsider the various pathways for transnational Jihadi recruitment by drawing upon a unique dataset pertaining to seventy Lebanese militants. I selectively combine elements from multiple perspectives to ponder the pathways of ISIS recruits, but my conclusions can be modified to apply to other circumstances.
Branch, Jordan. “What’s in a Name? Metaphors and Cybersecurity.” International Organization, vol. 75, issue 1, 2021, pp. 39-70.
Abstract: For more than a decade, the United States military has conceptualized and discussed the Internet and related systems as “cyberspace,” understood as a “domain” of conflict like land, sea, air, and outer space. How and why did this concept become entrenched in US doctrine? What are its effects? Focusing on the emergence and consolidation of this terminology, I make three arguments about the role of language in cybersecurity policy. First, I propose a new, politically consequential category of metaphor: foundational metaphors, implied by using particular labels rather than stated outright. These metaphors support specific ways to understand complex issues, provide discursive resources to some arguments over others, and shape policy contestation and outcomes. Second, I present a detailed empirical study of US military strategy and doctrine that traces the emergence and consolidation of terminology built on the "cyberspace domain." This concept supported implicit metaphorical correspondences between the Internet and physical space, yielding specific analogies and arguments for understanding the Internet and its effects. Third, I focus on the rhetorical effects of this terminology to reveal two important institutional consequences: this language has been essential to expanding the military’s role in cybersecurity, and specific interests within the Department of Defense have used this framework to support the creation of US Cyber Command. These linguistic effects in the United States also have implications for how other states approach cybersecurity, for how international law is applied to cyber operations, and for how International Relations understands language and technological change.
Goettlich, Kerry and Jordan Branch. “Borders and Boundaries.” Routledge Handbook of Historical International Relations, edited by Benjamin de Carvalho, Julia Costa Lopez, and Halvard Leira. Routledge, 2021, pp. 267-276.
Abstract: The concepts of ‘borders’ and ‘boundaries’ are in some sense inherently central to International Relations (IR), but historical IR is an area of the discipline where comparatively little work has been done which takes as its primary goal the analysis of ‘borders’ or ‘boundaries’. In this chapter we give an overview of IR scholarship which intersects with the history of borders, dividing it into two categories: first, historical IR which engages with borders and boundaries, and second, a broader range of IR work on borders and boundaries which either has a historical component or could benefit from having one. In a final section, we put forward some suggestions for future research, highlighting in particular some ways of dealing with Eurocentrism in historical IR’s coverage of the topic.
Busch, Andrew E. and John J. Pitney, Jr., Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Rowman and Littlefield, 2021.
Abstract: Divided We Stand takes a comprehensive look at the 2020 U.S. elections, with chapters examining the Trump administration from 2017-2020, the battle for the Democratic nomination, the dramatic events of summer 2020, the Fall general election campaign and results, the congressional and state elections, and the post-election disputes.
Busch, Andrew E. “Resolved, Political Parties Should Nominate Candidates for the Presidency through a National Primary: Con.” Debating the Presidency: Conflicting Perspectives on the American Executive, 5th ed., edited by Richard J. Ellis and Michael Nelson. CQ Press, 2021, pp. 44-54.
Courser, Zachary and Eric Helland. “State Election Emergencies Modifications During the 2020 General Election.” Claremont McKenna College Policy Lab, May 2021.
Abstract: Despite Congress’ constitutional power to regulate federal elections, it has repeatedly abstained from doing so. The lack of a policy regarding federal elections meant that states were primarily responsible for managing the effects of the pandemic on the 2020 general election. It was up to individual states to enact statutes, issue rules or emergency orders to deal with the public health risks associated with voting during the pandemic. The variations in their responses to the election emergency caused by the COVID-19 pandemic could have had implications on accessibility, turnout, and the perceived legitimacy of the election. To understand this relationship, we to catalog the measures states took in 2020 in preparation for the general election, and draw conclusions as to their effects on vote access. We also determine how or whether a federal government policy on disrupted elections could have aided states in responding to the elections emergency caused by the pandemic.
Kosar, Kevin R. and Zachary Courser. “Restoring the Power of the Purse: Earmarks and Re-empowering Legislators to Deliver Local Benefits.” American Enterprise Institute, February 9, 2021.
Abstract: This report indicates that the House of Representatives should revisit the earmark moratorium and craft a means to allow legislators to request appropriated spending for particular projects in their districts. The process for requesting this directed spending should be transparent from initiation to conclusion and be subsequently audited to ensure funds were not wasted or misused. Access to directed spending should be made more equitable to legislators; senior members of the chamber too often have received a disproportionate share of earmarks. Finally, a new system of earmarks should contain prohibitions—such as forbidding earmarks to flow to a particular private corporation—that prevent quid pro quos between legislators and campaign donors.
Fortner, Michael Javen, “Riot or A Revolution.” Review of America on Fire, by Elizabeth Hinton. Literary Review, vol. 498, July 2021.
Fortner, Michael Javen and Sarah Simionas*. “The Bipartisanship of Police Reform and Public Safety.” Divided We Fall, December 2, 2021.
Kennelly, Daniel. “Black Attitudes on Crime and Policing.” Interview with Michael Fortner by Daniel Kennelly. City Journal, September 20, 2021.
Kesler, Charles R. Crisis of the Two Constitutions: The Rise, Decline, and Recovery of American Greatness. Encounter Books, 2021.
Abstract: American politics grows embittered because it is increasingly torn between two rival constitutions, two opposed cultures, two contrary ways of life. American conservatives rally around the founders’ Constitution, as amended, and as grounded in the natural and divine rights and duties of the Declaration of Independence. American liberals herald their “living Constitution,” a term that implies the original is dead or superseded, and that the fundamental political imperative is constant change or “transformation” (as President Obama called it) toward a more and more perfect social democracy, made possible by man’s increasingly god-like control of his own moral evolution. Crisis of the Two Constitutions details how we got to and what is at stake in our increasingly divided America. It takes controversial stands on matters political and scholarly, describing the political genius of America’s founders and their efforts to shape future generations through a constitutional culture that included immigration, citizenship, and educational policies. Then it turns to the attempted progressive refounding of America, tracing its accelerating radicalism from the New Deal to the 1960s’ New Left to today’s unhappy campus nihilists. Finally, the volume appraises American conservatives’ efforts, so far unavailing despite many famous victories, to restore the founders’ Constitution and moral common sense. From Ronald Reagan to Donald Trump, what have conservatives learned and where should we go from here? Along the way, Charles R. Kesler, editor of the Claremont Review of Books, argues with critics on the left and right, and refutes fashionable doctrines including relativism, multiculturalism, and neoconservatism, providing in effect a one-volume guide to the increasingly influential Claremont school of conservative thought by one of its most engaged thinkers.
Koch, Lisa Langdon, and Matthew Wells. “Still Taboo? Citizens’ Attitudes Toward the Use of Nuclear Weapons.” Journal of Global Security Studies, vol. 6, issue 3, 2021, ogaa024.
Abstract: How robust is the “nuclear taboo”—the belief that it is wrong to use nuclear weapons—and can it be strengthened? In a series of experimental surveys, we investigate two mechanisms theorized to support the nuclear nonuse norm. First, we examine the moral foundation of the norm by testing whether respondents who receive descriptions of the aftermath of a nuclear blast will be less supportive of nuclear weapons use. Second, we assess the mechanism of self-interest by raising a sense of nuclear risk, and test whether varying the likelihood of nuclear retaliation affects support for a strike. We find that vivid information about the consequences of a nuclear strike, either in moral or self-interested terms, reduces support for nuclear use. These findings indicate that each of the two mechanisms may support the nuclear nonuse tradition, but that the strength of each mechanism is affected by exposure to vivid information.
Lynch, Frederick. “COVID Vaccine Tensions Preview ‘Racial Generation Gap’ and a Competition for Resources.” USA Today, July 10, 2021.
Miller, Kenneth P., J. Andrew Sinclair, Nohl M. Patterson*, and Adhitya Venkatraman*. “CMC Rose Institute Poll: Political Attitudes in California and New York in a Time of Crisis for their Governors.” Rose Institute of State and Local Government, September 21, 2021.
Nadaon, Christopher. “Leo Strauss’ First Brush with Xenophon: The Spirit of Sparta or the Taste of Xenophon.” Review of Politics, vol. 83, issue 1, 2021, pp. 69-90.
Abstract: An essay on why Leo Strauss was so interested in Xenophon based on his first article on the subject as well as contemporaneous correspondence and other archival materials.
External Grant: Bradley Foundation Research Fellowship grant, 2021, $25,000.
Abstract: Fellowships awarded by Prof. Nichols, on the basis of academic merit, to graduate students in political philosophy.
Pears, Emily. Cords of Affection: Constructing Constitutional Union in Early American History. University Press of Kansas, 2021.
Abstract: In Cords of Affection: Constructing Constitutional Union in Early American History, Emily Pears investigates efforts by the founding generation’s leadership to construct and strengthen political attachments in and among the citizens of the new republic. These emotional connections between citizens and their institutions were critical to the success of the new nation. The founders recognized that attachments do not form automatically and require constant tending. Emily Pears defines and develops a theory of political attachments based on an analysis of the approaches used in the founding era. In particular, she identifies three methods of political attachment—a utilitarian method, a cultural method, and a participatory method. Cords of Affection offers a comparative analysis of the theories and projects undertaken by a wide array of political leaders in the early republic and antebellum periods that exemplify each of the three methods. The work includes new historical analysis of the implementation of projects of nationalism and attachment, ranging from data on federal funding for internal improvements to analysis of Whig orations.
In Cords of Affection Emily Pears offers lessons from history about the strengths, weaknesses, and pitfalls of various approaches to constructing national political attachments. Twenty-first century Americans’ attachments to their national government have waned. While there are multiple narratives of this decline, they all have the same core element: a citizenry unwilling to uphold the norms and institutions of American democracy in the face of challenge. When a demagogue or a populist movement or a foreign power threatens action that undermines American democracy, citizens will not come to its defense. Citizens cheer their own side, regardless of the means it uses, or they are simply apathetic to the role that institutions and institutional constraints play in keeping us all free and equal. At worst, Americans have come to regard their inherited constitutional foundations as unjust, biased, or ill-equipped for the modern world, and the notion of a shared political community as prejudicial and old-fashioned. They feel little sense of attachment to the American regime. By contrast the lessons in Cords of Affection allow us to consider a broader array of possible tools for the maintenance of todays political attachments.
Pei, Minxin. “Biden, Xi, and the Evolution of Cooperation.” Project Syndicate, February 2, 2021.
Abstract: The only way to prevent Sino-American relations from deteriorating further is for either US President Joe Biden or Chinese President Xi Jinping to offer a goodwill gesture, and then respond in kind to the other’s subsequent moves. And Xi appears better positioned to take the initiative.
Pei, Minxin. “Can the US and China Compete and Cooperate at the Same Time?” Nikkei Asia, August 12, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “The CCP’s Domestic Security Taskmaster: The Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission.” China Leadership Monitor, September 1, 2021.
Abstract: The Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission of the Chinese Communist Party oversees the vast coercive apparatus of the party-state. Its main responsibilities include providing policy proposals on domestic security, supervising implementation of the party’s domestic security agenda, coordinating the actions of law enforcement and the judiciary, and ensuring the political loyalty of officials in law enforcement agencies. In the 1980s, the most open period in post-Mao China, the role and power of the commission were limited. But as the CCP leadership became more conservative in the post-Tiananmen period, the commission was granted more power to strengthen domestic security. It is now the CCP’s principal enforcer to maintain the supremacy of the party over the state’s coercive apparatus and an essential institution in organizing surveillance, supervising campaigns of repression, and providing for public safety.
Pei, Minxin. “China and the US Dash Toward Another MAD Arms Race.” Nikkei Asia, May 16, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China Can’t Win An Arms Race with the U.S.” Bloomberg, September 22, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China is Its Own Worst Enemy.” Nikkei Asia, April 29, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China is Killing Its Tech Golden Goose.” Project Syndicate, July 12, 2021.
Abstract: The Communist Party of China’s crackdown on ride-hailing firm Didi over supposed data-security concerns seems to be just the beginning of a wider campaign to assert control over the country’s thriving tech sector. Foreign investors hoping that Chinese leaders will realize their folly and reverse course should think again.
Pei, Minxin. “China Isn’t About to Try Its Luck with Taiwan.” Bloomberg, August 24, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China is Slamming Shut Its Window of Opportunity.” Bloomberg, December 8, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China Must Not Shut the Door to Cultural Exchanges with the U.S.” Nikkei Asia, November 3, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China’s Biggest Ally in the U.S. May be the GOP.” Bloomberg, April 11, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China’s Economic Self-Harm.” Project Syndicate, April 7, 2021.
Abstract: China’s antagonistic response to concerns over the use of forced labor in Xinjiang suggests that its leaders believe that the Chinese market is simply too lucrative for Western firms or governments to abandon. They may be overplaying their hand.
Pei, Minxin. “China Shouldn’t Try to Blackmail Biden on Climate.” Bloomberg, March 7, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China Should Take Steps to Reassure Its Private Entrepreneurs.” Nikkei Asia, September 5, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China Smart Not to Overreact to Biden’s Summit for Democracy.” Nikkei Asia, December 9, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China’s New Plan to Counter the US Economy.” Nikkei Asia, January 6, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “The China Threat is Being Overhyped.” Bloomberg, May 27, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “China: Totalitarianism’s Dark Shadow,” Journal of Democracy, vol. 32, issue 2, 2021, pp. 5-21.
Abstract: Rapid economic growth in China over the last four decades has failed to bring about democratization. Instead of undergoing evolutionary liberalization, the Leninist party-state has in recent years reverted to a form of neo-Stalinist rule. China’s experience may appear to contradict modernization theory, which links economic development with democracy. A closer look at this experience, however, shows that democratizing a post-totalitarian regime is far more difficult than democratizing an authoritarian regime because post-totalitarian regimes, such as the one dominated by the Chinese Communist Party, possess far greater capacity and resources to resist and neutralize the liberalizing effects of modernization. However, the medium-term success of these regimes may only ensure their eventual demise through revolution. The socioeconomic transformation of societies under post-totalitarian rule empowers social forces and greatly increase the odds of revolutionary change when these regimes undergo liberalization, as shown in the former Soviet bloc.
Pei, Minxin. “Domestic Politics, Not Conflict, Will Settle U.S.-China Competition.” Nikkei Asia, December 1, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “Grid Management: China’s Latest Institutional Tool of Social Control.” China Leadership Monitor, March 1, 2021.
Abstract: The Chinese government began to implement a new form of social control—grid management—about fifteen years ago. On paper, the country has largely finished setting up more than one million grids in local communities. Grid management, which entails dividing communities into small units (1,000 residents per unit, as in most cases) and equipping them with information and surveillance technology, appeals to the top Chinese leadership because it promises to provide the party-state a new and more capable instrument of social control and delivery of public services. Publicly available materials suggest that most localities adapt their existing local organizations, such as neighborhood and village committees, into grids to comply with the central government’s order. As fully effective grid management requires enormous investments in well-trained manpower and reliable technology, it will likely take years for China to build such a system. At the moment, only wealthy cities seem to have made genuine progress in the development of grid management, while most grids are likely no more than relabeled neighborhood committees. Like China’s social credit system, grid management is evidence, but not yet reality, of the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s aspirations to construct a well-organized and technologically sophisticated surveillance state.
Pei, Minxin. “Hong Kong’s Elites Should Think About an Exit Strategy.” Nikkei Asia, April 2, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “The Limits to US-China Climate Cooperation.” Project Syndicate, May 6, 2021.
Abstract: The world desperately needs the United States and China to collaborate in addressing climate change, but no one should harbor any illusions. The best to be hoped for is that the two superpowers are disciplined enough to avoid endangering humanity’s survival as they jostle for geopolitical advantage.
Pei, Minxin. “The Meaning Behind the Pageantry of China’s Two Sessions.” Nikkei Asia, March 10, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “Militarizing U.S.-China Competition is Fraught with Danger.” Nikkei Asia, October 6, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “Minxin Pei on Why China Will Not Surpass the United States.” The Economist, August 30, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “The Origins and Implications of Xi Jinping’s ‘Common Prosperity’ Agenda.” China Leadership Monitor, December 1, 2021.
Abstract: The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) formally unveiled a “common prosperity” agenda in August of this year. The concept is not new. Investigation into the origin of this idea shows that Xi Jinping has been consistently, albeit with irregular frequency, talking about “common prosperity” since assuming office in late 2012. He personally elevated this concept to place it on the party’s agenda at the fifth plenum of the Central Committee at the end of October 2020. Zhejiang, where he served as party chief from late 2002 to 2006, was selected by the Chinese government as a “demonstration zone” in May 2021. The official propaganda machine launched a campaign to promote “common prosperity” in mid-August 2021 after publication of the press release of the 10th meeting of the Central Finance Commission. An analysis of Xi’s speeches and official documents on “common prosperity” shows that while Xi may be the driving force behind this agenda, the CCP has yet to formulate specific and practical policies to fulfill it. The most challenging issues will likely be those related to the fiscal reforms needed to fund a significant expansion of social services and protection for underprivileged groups.
Pei, Minxin. “The Party is Not Forever.” Project Syndicate, July 11, 2021.
Abstract: As the Communist Party of China prepares to mark its centennial on July 1, the poor longevity record of other dictatorial parties in modern times should give its leaders cause for worry. If the CPC is not on the right track with its neo-Maoist revival, its upcoming milestone maybe its last.
Pei, Minxin. “Putin’s Russia is a Trap China Should Avoid.” Nikkei Asia, June 13, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “Republicans Must Regain Credibility to Help US Compete with China.” Nikkei Asia, January 27, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “Shinzo Abe’s Asia-Pacific.” Project Syndicate, December 4, 2021.
Abstract: Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe knew that engagement with China was vital to ease tensions and mitigate risks. But he also knew that to ensure peace and prosperity in the region, engagement had to be complemented by solid economic and security alliances with other major powers, especially the US and India.
Pei, Minxin. “Threading the Needle: Balancing Security and Development in the 14th Five-Year Plan.” China Leadership Monitor, June 1, 2021.
Abstract: Due to the deterioration of China’s external environment in general, and its escalating tensions with the United States in particular, the Chinese government has readjusted its economic development strategy. As delineated in Beijing’s 14th Five-Year Plan, which was unveiled in mid-March of this year, China will invest in efforts designed to strengthen its economic security and better protect its economy from external economic threats. These initiatives include science and technology self-sufficiency, secure supply chains in its manufacturing economy, growth sustained by domestic demand, and food and energy security. Although these efforts seem attractive on paper, China will likely encounter immense challenges in trying to implement its new development strategy. Chinese leaders may have underestimated the potential costs of strengthening national security at the expense of global integration. Beijing’s disappointing records in executing industrial policy and rebalancing its economy also raise doubts whether it will be able to meet its ambitious goals.
Pei, Minxin. “Understanding China’s Pettiness Complex.” Nikkei Asia, July 14, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “The U.S. and China are Running Out of Time.” Bloomberg, January 15, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “Why China’s Hong Kong Crackdown Could Backfire.” Project Syndicate, March 8, 2021.
Abstract: Chinese leaders are most likely already aware of the probable international consequences of pursuing an ultra-repressive course in Hong Kong. But by prosecuting 47 pro-democracy activists, President Xi Jinping is throwing down the gauntlet to a new US administration and its allies – and may be overplaying his hand.
Pei, Minxin. “Xi’s Excessive Secrecy Inflicts Needless Self-Harm.” Nikkei Asia, February 17, 2021.
Pei, Minxin. “Xi Shouldn’t Miss His Moment with Biden.” Bloomberg, July 1, 2021.
Busch, Andrew E. and John J. Pitney, Jr., Divided We Stand: The 2020 Elections and American Politics. Rowman and Littlefield, 2021.
Abstract: Divided We Stand takes a comprehensive look at the 2020 U.S. elections, with chapters examining the Trump administration from 2017-2020, the battle for the Democratic nomination, the dramatic events of summer 2020, the Fall general election campaign and results, the congressional and state elections, and the post-election disputes.
Pitney, John J., Jr., “Resolved: The Senate Should Represent People, Not States – Con.” Debating Reform, 4th ed., edited by Richard J. Ellis and Michael Nelson. CQ Press, 2021, pp 236-244.
Abstract: In debate format, this chapter argues for retention of the current system of choosing senators by state. There are obvious democratic problems with equal representation of states, but the alternatives are inferior.
Pitney, John J. Review of Ideas of Power: The Politics of American Party Ideology Development, by Verlan Lewis. Cambridge University Press, vol. 28, issue 1, 2021, pp. 198-199.
Abstract: Verlan Lewis’s book is a sophisticated analysis of the evolution of party ideology.
Rose, Shanna. “State Minimum Wage Laws as a Response to Federal Inaction.” SAGE Publications, vol. 52, issue 4, 2021, pp. 277-286.
Abstract: This article analyzes state legislative and ballot measure activity related to the minimum wage between 2003 and 2020. The analysis distinguishes proposals to raise the minimum wage from those to index it to the annual rate of inflation, and examines the proposed dollar amount, the process used (legislation vs. ballot measure), and the measure’s success or failure. The analysis suggests that state activity tends to increase when the minimum wage rises on the federal policy agenda, and that partisanship and ideology also play a central role in efforts to raise and index state minimum wages.
External Grant: Rose, Shanna. “Federalism and the Minimum Wage.” Center for the Study of Federalism, 2021, $14,708.
Abstract: This book project, funded by the Center for the Study of Federalism, answers three central questions about federalism and the minimum wage. First, which political, legal, and economic factors have contributed to the gradual shift in the locus of minimum wage policy from the states to Capitol Hill to back over the past century? Second, which factors are shaping contemporary state and local minimum wage policy, including not only the basic minimum wage but also indexation, subminimum wages, the tip credit, and state preemption of local minimum wage policies? Third, what are the implications—both the promise and the perils—of a state-centered approach to minimum wage policy?
Shields, Jon. “Hard But Real Compromise is Possible on Abortion.” New York Times, October 19, 2021.
Bessette, Joseph M., and J. Andrew Sinclair. “How Many Americans Support the Death Penalty? Results of National Surveys in 2019 and 2020.” Report of the Rose Institute of State and Local Government, Claremont McKenna College, June, 2021
Bessette, Joseph M., and Andrew Sinclair. “New Evidence Confirms Widespread Support for the Death Penalty.” Real Clear Policy, August 16, 2021.
Miller, Kenneth P., J. Andrew Sinclair, Nohl M. Patterson*, and Adhitya Venkatraman*. “CMC Rose Institute Poll: Political Attitudes in California and New York in a Time of Crisis for their Governors.” Rose Institute of State and Local Government, September 21, 2021.
Sinclair, Betsy, and J. Andrew Sinclair. “Primaries and Populism: Voter Efficacy, Champions, and Election Rules.” Journal of Political Institutions and Political Economy, vol. 2, issue 3, 2021, pp. 365-388.
Abstract: In an era of rising populism, who supports primary election reforms? Scholars frequently characterize the demand for political reforms as driven by a motivation to force politicians to follow the will of the people. Recent changes such as California’s “top-two” primary were intended to further “good government” ends and to help elect moderate or compromise-oriented candidates. Frustrated voters, and those with a low sense of political efficacy, may turn to populist politicians. The open question: will supporters of more populist leaders also support primary reforms? Using a large-sample survey implemented just prior to the contentious 2020 general election, we ask voters about their preferences over primary type. Our findings draw attention to the underdeveloped connection between populism and reform. While, in general, voters with low political efficacy are more likely to favor the top-two rules, we also find support for primary election reforms is not symmetric between party wings. Voters tending to favor liberal champions express greater relative support for rules like the top-two primary than supporters of the more populist conservative champions. In addition, the results are broadly consistent in asking voters about more “open” party primaries versus more “closed” ones. We conclude by discussing the implications of these results both for scholars interested in parties and populism and for the study of primary elections.
Sinclair, J. Andrew, Maya Love*, and María Gutiérrez-Vera*. “Federalism, Defunding the Police, and Democratic Values: A Functional Accountability Framework for Analyzing Police Reform Proposals.” Publius: The Journal of Federalism, vol. 51, issue 3, 2021, pp. 484-511.
Abstract: This article examines recent proposals to “defund the police” using a perspective informed by literature on agency termination and political accountability. These concepts allow us to build a framework for categorizing such proposals based on the assignment of functions to organizations. These proposals operate in the context of a federal system which can shape the character of each category, make some choices more or less feasible, influence where functions may be assigned, and create political incentives out of the complex geography of conflict. We use examples from Minneapolis, New York, Los Angeles, and Seattle to illustrate our framework. We conclude by offering a preliminary analysis of why these cities tend towards adopting one of the alternatives we outline.
Echeverri-Gent, John, Aseema Sinha, and Andrew Wyatt. “Economic Distress Amidst Political Success: India’s Economic Policy Under Modi, 2014-2019.” India Review, vol. 20, issue 4, 2021, pp. 402-435.
Abstract: Narendra Modi came to power in 2014 promising robust economic management and more employment. The campaign promise of “maximum governance, minimum government,” created hope that Modi would transform India’s economy by removing obstacles to growth and job creation. We assess the Modi government’s economic policies from 2014–2019 focusing on salient initiatives like demonetization, bankruptcy law, GST reforms, and “Make in India.” We argue that Modi’s economic policies must be understood, first and foremost, as a political strategy to build political support and ensure the BJP’s hegemony through the next decade. In addition, we show that Modi’s success in building his personal image as a decisive leader perversely triggered institutional changes such as centralization of decision-making and political management of information that diminished India’s state capacity and led to policies that failed to address, and in many cases exacerbated, India’s economic problems.
Sinha, Aseema. “Understanding the ‘Crisis of Institutions’ in the Liberal Trade Order at the WTO.” International Affairs, vol. 97, issue 5, 2021, pp. 1521-1540.
Abstract: The liberal trade order is in crisis. I argue that the origins of the current crises lie in the underlying tension which exists in the World Trade Organization (WTO), magnified by a churning in global power dynamics. A dilemma at the heart of the WTO between two important goals of representativeness and effectiveness means that both goals cannot be pursued at the same time. Now, this inherent tension is being magnified by power shifts in the global economy most evident in the rise of emerging powers within the WTO, who demand more representation, and the retreat by the US towards a more inward-looking orientation; both together damage effectiveness. Simultaneously, new powers such as China and India are defending a ‘reformed multilateralism’ combined with selective protectionism with varying capacity. These shifts are transforming previous ‘crises within institutions’ into a ‘crisis of institutions’ at the WTO, wherein the rules of the game, ideas of free trade and the legitimacy of the WTO are under threat. Global trade politics is seeing new coalitions at the WTO, as emerging powers craft their own rise, US defends sovereignty and trade protections, and launches a challenge to China’s rise, and some established powers (the EU for example) seek to reform it. The new global trade politics is walking on two uneven legs and creating winners and losers and new ways of managing the transitional trading order as did the creation of the post-world war order.
Appel, Hilary, and Jennifer Taw. “Has Russia’s Anti-NATO Agenda Succeeded?" Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 68, issue 6, 2021, pp. 468-476.
Abstract: Stopping NATO enlargement has become a clear foreign policy priority for Russia. Given the diminished likelihood of Ukrainian and Georgian membership, Russia’s anti-NATO agenda may appear as an unqualified success. However, the net impact of Russia’s anti-NATO foreign policy agenda is quite mixed. Ukraine’s and Georgia’s stakes for accession have increased and key European NATO members’ hesitancy to provoke Russia unnecessarily is clear, but Russia’s actions have not prevented progress toward accession in other candidate countries, while the appeal of membership actually has increased in Ukraine and elsewhere in Europe.
Thomas, George. “America’s Imperfect Founding.” The Bulwark, July 23, 2021.
Thomas, George. “The Founding, Constitutional Imperfection, and the Future of the American Experiment.” American Political Thought, vol. 10, no. 3, 2021, pp. 481-498.
Abstract: The two works under review return to the founders to better understand the nature and limits of the American experiment as pessimism about its future has grown. Thomas E. Ricks’s First Principles: What American Founders Learned from the Greeks and Romans and How That Shaped Our Country examines how the thinking of the first four presidents was shaped by their historical understandings. Dennis C. Rasmussen’s Fears of a Setting Sun: The Disillusionment of America’s Founders also focuses on four leading founders but illuminates how they came to lose faith in the American experiment. These intelligent works reveal both the virtues and shortcomings of the American experiment, as well as illustrating that the founders had a deeper sense of the fragility of their experiment–and an acute understanding of constitutional imperfection–than their progeny have often had. Understanding this fragility might better help us preserve the future of the American experiment.
Thomas, George. “Two Cheers for ‘Two Concepts’: Isaiah Berlin’s Skeptical, Tragic Liberalism.” Critical Review, vol. 32, issue 4, 2021, pp. 574-592.
Abstract: Returning to Isaiah Berlin’s “Two Concepts of Liberty” offers a defense of liberal democracy that can help us come to terms with its limits, as well as the implicit tradeoffs that are an inescapable feature of politics in a liberal democracy. While critics of Berlin are right to note his neglect of Enlightenment constitutionalism, his skeptical liberalism is illuminated by comparative constitutional law, where we see how different constitutional regimes balance different values—such as democracy, liberty, and equality—in different ways that are attuned to the particulars of place and history that both Berlin and critics of liberalism insist are so important.
Thomas, George. The (Un)Written Constitution. Oxford University Press, 2021.
Abstract: The late Justice Scalia relished pointing to departures from the written text of the Constitution as a departure from Constitutional law itself, but in fact his own jurisprudence relied on unwritten ideas. Given that Scalia’s “textualist” approach to constitutional interpretation has become even more prominent in recent years with the elevation of Justices Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett—all jurists in the mold of Scalia—to the Supreme Court, it is crucial that the public understands that these textualists all rely on unwritten ideas when they interpret the Constitution. Indeed, our most intense debates about America’s written Constitution are not about constitutional text, but about the unwritten ideas and understandings that guide our reading of the text. In The (Un)Written Constitution, George Thomas makes these ideas visible by turning to the practices of Supreme Court justices and political actors in interpreting the Constitution over more than two centuries. From founding debates about freedom of speech and religion to contemporary arguments about judicial review, the separation of powers, same-sex marriage, and partisan gerrymandering, he highlights the too-often unacknowledged ideas that animate our debates about the written Constitution. Contrary to the self-identified textualists, Thomas argues, these recurrent debates are not about whether to follow the text. Rather, they are disputes about what fidelity to the text requires. Illuminating how moving beyond the text is an inescapable feature of interpreting the written Constitution, this concise primer on constitutional interpretation forces us to consider the text—and the unstated principles that lie beneath it—in a new light.